Threat Probability Matrix

The Threat Probability Matrix is based on the priority of threat probability. I have borrowed it (with permission – Thank You Jack!) from Jack Spirko at (TSP). It is a foundational tool that I use in my decision making process. (I’m beginning to think I may be a Jack Spirko fanboy. I’m ok with that though, he is one switched on individual.)

“Plan for disaster in the following order of priority – Personal-Localized-Regional-State-National-Global. Despite the real possibility of a true economic melt down or catastrophic terrorist attack or some other major global disaster the most probable “disaster” for any individual is personal. Loss of a job, loss of a family member, a fire or localized weather event are the most probable threats to impact any individual. So plan and prepare for those first, then continue to build going forward.” – Modern Survival Philosophy, Core Value #6 See also: Survival Tenet #6

The threat Probability Matrix is an inverse relationship between the number of people affected and the likelihood of it happening. For instance: What good is 10,000 rounds of ammo when your department at work gets let go, but no one else in your neighborhood is affected? I PERSONALLY THINK preparing for the zombie apocalypse or TEOTWAWKI before you prepare for personal tragedy is backwards. I think provision should trump survival, hence my desire for a garden. I think buying a 4 wheel drive truck is more important than buying a 5th or 6th pistol (assuming everyone in your household already has one). You will get far more use out of it. Preparing for job loss and inflation is nowhere near as sexy as preparing to survive off the land, but it is a far more likely circumstance.

Here is a good link talking about Downward Class Migration. I feel this is the most likely, immediate threat we face so that is what I want to prepare for first. Most preparations for this will translate into TEOTWAWKI preps as well, but some – like keeping your resume updated – won’t. It absolutely will take a village which is why social capital is so important going forward. No man can be an island, and those that can live like that most likely already are

It does me no good to be able to start a fire by rubbing two sticks together when the crisis that occurs doesn’t affect the entire society, but just a small percentage of it or just me. Having skills like welding, growing food, making bows, these are crossover skills. You could survive most any type of crisis with them. You could use them to survive total collapse, or to bring in income in a far less nefarious scenario.

As Jack Spirko says, “preparing for a better life if times get tough, or even if they don’t.” I am just looking to live the life our founding fathers envisioned. I may never need to shoot 10,000 rounds of ammo, but I could always go for making my own salsa.


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